Water AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Taipei
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.4% | 12 | 5-5-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.3% | 11 | 2-8-1 | 22.7% | 30.0% | 23.5% | -11.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.3% | +16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.9% | 8 | 5-1-2 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 55.2% | +2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.9% | +3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 7 | 5-0-2 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 72.2% | +11.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 28.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.6% | +16.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 27.8% | -14.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Water Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.3% | +9.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 26.3% | -17.7 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |